Global steel demand to return growth in 2010

The World Steel Association (worldsteel) is forecasting that apparent steel use will contract worldwide by -8.6% to 1,104mmt in 2009. This is an improved figure over the spring forecast issued in April 2009 that predicted a decrease of -14.1%. The improvement is largely due to the exceptionally strong growth in steel demand in China. With signs, from the beginning of the second half of 2009, of a recovery across the world now apparent, global steel demand in 2010 is forecast to grow by 9.2% to 1,206mmt, which is a recovery to the level of 2008. China's apparent steel use in 2009 is expected to increase by 18.8% to reach 526mmt. China is expected to account for 47.7% of world steel apparent use and excluding China, potential world steel demand would have fallen by -24.4%. India also remained relatively resilient to the global crisis and apparent steel use is expected to grow by 8.9% and 12.1% in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The NAFTA region is expected to show a -35.8% decline in apparent steel use in 2009 and then a positive 17.1% growth in 2010. Apparent steel demand in the U.S. is likely to fall by -38.7% to 60mmt in 2009 after falling by -8.2% in 2008. It should recover to 72mmt in 2010 with a growth rate of 18.8%. The EU-27 economies were also severely affected by the crisis and the region's apparent steel use is expected to fall by -32.6% in 2009 to 122mmt. In 2010, the apparent steel use in the EU-27 is expected to grow by 12.4%. For both NAFTA and EU-27, the level of apparent steel use that is expected in 2010 amounts to what was achieved back in 1991, demonstrating the severity of the impact of the crisis on the steel industry. Japan will see its apparent steel use decline by -31.3%, which is expected to recover by 15.8% in 2010 to reach 61mmt. Apparent steel use in the CIS region is expected to contract by -30.8% in 2009 and should grow by only 8.2% in 2010.New Balance