Global type 2 diabetes market to reach $38.8 bn by 2019

NEW YORK – The global type 2 diabetes market is expected to grow from $20.4 billion in 2012 to $38.8 billion by 2019, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.2%, forecasts business intelligence provider GBI Research.

This report* provides an in-depth analysis of major glucose-lowering drugs for type 2 diabetes, including analyses of their safety, efficacy, treatment patterns, strengths/weaknesses and overall commercial prospects. It includes a heat map comparing major drugs in terms of safety, efficacy and dosing parameters.

It states that the US currently has the highest market share, which will rise from $12.7 billion in 2012 to $27.2 billion by 2019, at a CAGR of 11.6%, followed by the top five EU markets (the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain), which will grow from $4.5 billion to $7.1 billion, at a CAGR of 6.8%.

This increase, according to GBI Research, is due to the anticipated approval of products in relatively novel treatment classes, such as GLP-1 agonists, DPP-4 and SGLT-2 inhibitors. Should these expensive drug classes capture substantial market shares, this would be expected to result in an even more robust level of market growth.

Furthermore, due to the increase in the number of obesity cases and with people living longer, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes is also expected to rise.

Dominic Trewartha, GBI Research’s associate analyst, says: “The strong forecast for the type 2 diabetes market is reliant upon the ability of late-stage pipeline drugs, such as gemigliptin, to reach expectations created by promising clinical trial results, and of newly marketed products, including Nesina and Tradjenta, to capture a significant share of the market. In order to do this, they will need to balance clinical efficacy with safety and tolerability profiles.”

However, the sulfonylureas and metformin classes, both widely used among type 2 diabetes patients, are strongly penetrated by generic and low-cost products, presenting a potential major barrier to the market.

* Type 2 Diabetes Market to 2019 - A Shifting Treatment Algorithm and Intensified Competition Expected to Drive Growth by 2019