NEW product launches and the healthcare burden of an aging population will influence growth in Japan’s pharmaceutical market. Forecasts from research and consulting firm GlobalData point to a tepid growth of
1.3% for the sector, which is expected to expand to $79.8 billion by 2020 from $72.8 billion in 2013.
Japan’s pharmaceutical industry peaked at $88 billion in 2011 from $64.2 billion in 2008 and then dropped slightly to $87.2 billion in 2012. GlobalData predicts a steady period of recovery after 2013 figures dipped by more than $14 billion.
The Japanese government’s promotion of generic drugs, its biennial pricing review system, and the depreciation of the yen against the dollar will also limit growth in the world’s second-largest mature pharmaceutical market in terms of value.
According to GlobalData’s Healthcare Industry Dynamics director Joshua Owide, “In 2008, generics accounted for 19% of the pharmaceutical space in terms of volume, rising to 25.2% in 2013. Japan has set a goal for generics to account for 60% of all drug use by 2017. To this end, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare announced new price cuts in 2013 for drugs with generic replacement of less than 60%, a move which is likely to limit future growth in the pharmaceutical arena.”
Owide said that deregulation measures introduced in April 2005 impacted overall market performance while more efficient drug reviews have facilitated the entry of new products.
“The approval process has now caught up with that outside of Japan, as highlighted by two approvals for Bristol-Myers Squibb, the Daklinza (daclatasvir) and Sunvepra (asunaprevir) dual regimen for hepatitis C, and Opdivo (nivolumab) for melanoma, prior to their approval by the US Food and Drug Administration,” Mr. Owide stated.
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