Where does FDI in India go next?

AFTER A SEVEN-YEAR PARTNERSHIP, Walmart and Indian retail partner Bharti Enterprises last month issued a terse joint message saying they were ending the 50/50 joint venture launched by the two firms in 2006 and had reached an agreement to independently own their business interests in India.

The move wasn’t entirely unexpected. Days before the statement was released, Walmart Asia CEO Scott Price told the media during an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Bali that “the existing franchise to Bharti is not tenable as the base” for Walmart in India. Both sides were looking at the best way to move forward, he added.

Under the agreement reached by the two firms, Bharti will acquire Walmart’s indirect stake in the Easyday chain of retail stores through acquisition of compulsory convertible debentures of Cedar Support Services, a Bharti group company. In turn, Walmart will acquire Bharti’s stake in the 50/50 Bharti Walmart joint venture, which is a cash-and-carry business-to-business operation under the Best Price marquee. India has allowed 100% foreign direct investment (FDI) in the cash-and-carry segment since 2006. “Given the circumstances, our decision to operate independently will be beneficial to both parties,” said Price.

Even though the split was no big surprise, it didn’t make much sense to many observers. Walmart has been leading the campaign to get government permission for 51% foreign holding in multi-brand retail. In single-brand retail, 100% FDI has been allowed since September 2012. The FDI policy in retail has been extremely controversial and the Manmohan Singh government had to stake its survival on the issue. “The Walmart withdrawal is a victory for small traders,” says Praveen Khandelwal, secretary general of the Confederation of All India Traders, an anti-FDI organization.

But according to Wharton lecturer Edwin Keh, India may actually have little to do with Walmart rethinking its strategy in the country. “I suspect the current moves in India are part of a larger shift by Walmart to put focus back on its domestic business,” says Keh, who was formerly chief operating officer and senior vice president of global procurement for the retail giant. “In the current environment of a recovering U.S. economy, the opportunities may be back at home.”

Keh cites other recent Walmart moves to support this theory. “India, China and Mexico have been the countries where Walmart is ‘rebalancing’ its stores,” he notes. However, he sees Walmart’s total business in China as poised for growth with its investment in online grocery retailer Yihaodian. Walmart has a 51% interest in Yihaodian and plans to integrate its logistics operations with that of the latter.

Yet everything is not black and white. The retail giant has recently run into problems with the U.S. authorities over allegations that Walmart de Mexico had bribed its way to market dominance in that country. Even as this investigation was proceeding, further accusations were made about similar transgressions in India, China and Brazil.

Policy Pains

What is it about the FDI rules that Walmart is finding difficult to accept? The trouble in India is that every policy is accompanied by subsequent clarifications, sKD VIII N7 Glowing