UCIMU: Q4 2025 machine tool orders fall 13.6%, led by export slump

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the index of machine tool orders processed by the Centro Studi & Cultura di Impresa of UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE, recorded a decrease of 13.6% compared to the period October-December 2024. The absolute value of the index stood at 68 (base 100 in 2021).

On the domestic front, orders fell by 2.9%, compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, for an absolute value of 56.3.

The result of orders collected abroad was heavier, which recorded a decrease of 17.1%, compared to the same period of the previous year. The absolute value of the index stood at 69.3.

On an annual basis, order intake remains in positive territory thanks to the plus sign recorded in the first three quarters, and takes the form of +3.1% (67.6 absolute index) compared to the 2024 figure; +38.9% domestic orders (absolute index 55.1); -9.4% foreign orders (absolute index 76.4).

Riccardo Rosa, UCIMU president, said: "The overall result of order collection for 2025 is in line with that of the last 2 years and therefore once again disappointing."

"With particular reference to the last quarter - added Riccardo Rosa - it is clear that the slowdown in activity on foreign markets has not been matched by a substantial recovery on the domestic market.

"On the domestic front, the results collected show that the 5.0 plan has not worked as it should have. Of course, the measure, together with 4.0, has moved demand a bit, but the countless start and stops have made everything not very fluid until its conclusion in December".

"Now," Riccardo Rosa continued, "we are waiting for the implementing decrees of the new measure that will accompany investments in new technologies between now and 2028. Italian companies have great expectations with respect to this measure, especially for the duration that allows better planning of purchases by users and therefore also a more effective and efficient distribution of the production activity of our companies. However, we believe it is essential that the decrees arrive very soon in order to be able to operate immediately with clarity, giving support to demand at a time when the international scenario is putting a strain on the industrial systems of traditional economies".

"Looking beyond the border, the context of great uncertainty, determined by geopolitical instability, is a factor that heavily affects the results of our companies which, on the foreign front, are now precluded from many business opportunities. Open conflicts, Trump's trade strategy with the continuous retractions on tariffs, the crisis in the automotive sector and Germany, the closure and now inaccessibility of some markets such as Russia and China greatly limit what has always been one of our strengths, namely export activity".

"In this regard," said Riccardo Rosa, "we warmly welcome the signing of the free trade agreement just signed by the EU and India, a country with enormous potential for development and growth, potential that Italian manufacturers of machine tools, robots and automation will certainly be able to make the most of. On the other hand, with 135 million euros in exports (in the first 9 months of 2025, the latest available data), India is now our fourth largest outlet market and we believe that the treaty just signed together with the repeal by the Ministry of Heavy Industries, of the "Omnibus" order, which should have come into force at the beginning of 2026 and which would have linked the import of machinery to obtaining the BIS license, will give further impetus to our activity in the area."

"On the contrary," added President Rosa, "we consider the decision to postpone the EU-Mercosur agreement to an assessment by the Court a hard blow for the manufacturing industry and in particular for the Italian machine tool, which has always looked carefully at emerging markets or with fluctuating trends such as those in the area. Many of those countries, first and foremost Brazil, represent potentially interesting markets for our companies whose high quality and personalization of the offer are appreciated by local users. For this reason, it is necessary to intervene as soon as possible to implement the agreement which would also free our sales from many customs duties currently in force".

"Also by virtue of this agreement, in the last two years, the association has strengthened its initiatives dedicated to Latin American countries. In addition to the exploratory missions carried out in Brazil, designed to strengthen partnerships with the local system made up of institutions, companies and representative organizations, UCIMU has started interesting discussions with the industrial representative organizations of Argentina preparatory to new collaborations between the industries of the two countries. We have not neglected the so-called "associated countries" and "observers" linked to the agreement, certain that these too will offer interesting opportunities for Italian manufacturers. Among the Mercosur members, we turned our attention to Chile where, following a reconnaissance mission, a project for the development of a Technological Center was studied. Among the countries observing the agreement, on the other hand, our focus is on Mexico where, since the beginning of 2025, the Oficina Italiana de Promotiòn Mexico has been operational, a desk that works to support Italian companies in the activity of knowledge and penetration of the relevant market, also for the Central and North America area".

"We cannot allow - concluded President Rosa - that the great potential of companies and the work done by organizations like ours are thwarted by an absolutely senseless decision. The competitiveness of European manufacturing depends on it".