Africa's chance to achieve sustainable, inclusive growth

WHAT are the determinants of sustainable economic growth in Africa over the next 17 years? The answer lies in the key factors behind the success of a number of economies that are emerging as the engines of economic growth in the world. We are witnessing nothing short of an economic revolution, or what Robert Zoellick, the former president of the World Bank, describes as "a tectonic shift in global economic power".

The ground is shifting under our feet. Economic and political power is flowing to developing countries at an unprecedented speed. In the 1990s, developing countries collectively accounted for a fifth of global growth. By 2025, the World Bank forecasts that six of the biggest emerging economies — China, India, Brazil, South Korea, Russia and Indonesia — will account for half.

As these countries move to centre stage, their economic growth has resulted in hundreds of millions of people being lifted out of poverty in India, in China, in Brazil.

The economic revolution that has taken place in Asia over the past 20 years has begun to take shape in Africa. Real gross domestic product (GDP) compound annual growth between 2000 and 2010 was 5.1%, the second-fastest in the world after emerging Asia. Growth acceleration occurred in 27 of Africa’s 30 largest economies.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects sub-Saharan Africa’s growth to average above 5% and that between 2011 and 2015 seven of the top 10 fastest growing economies will be in Africa. These are: Ethiopia, Mozambique, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, Zambia and Nigeria. The non-African countries are: China, India and Vietnam. The key success factors are very similar to those present in other thriving emerging economies.

What do we mean by sustainable development? In my formulation it means, in the first instance, that we need resilient economic growth. We need growth that is inclusive to ensure that rising levels of inequality are reversed and poverty is eradicated. We need growth that is greener and is less environmentally damaging. And it means making better use of the capabilities that we have.

How do we maintain and accelerate the current trajectory evident in so many African countries? How do we change the fact that the continent has about 20% of the world’s land mass and 16% of its population, but contributes only 2.5% to its GDP?

There are a number of necessary conditions for continued growth. The two most important are better macroeconomic management and greater political stability. Great strides have been made in both areas: average inflation in Africa has come down from 22% in the 1990s to 8% after 2000; governments have cut foreign debt from 82% to 59% of GDP; and budget deficits have come down from 4.6% of GDP to 1.8%.

Political stability has also taken hold in more countries. The average number of serious conflicts has declined from an average of 4.8 each year in the 1990s to 2.6 in the 2000s. But, as IMF MD Christine Lagarde warned on a recent trip to Malawi and C?te d’Ivoire, security remains fragile in too many countries, especially in West Africa.

A third factor behind Africa’s growth trajectory has been the prolonged rise in commodity prices.

There is no denying that we still have some way to go. We face four main challenges: faster structural transformation; more inclusive growth and job creation; better management of natural resources; and a stronger financial sector.

The solutions are within our reach. We need to implement policies that ensure we are an attractive destination for foreign investment. We must also design and implement fair and sensible tax regimes to capture a fair proportion of rents and then use these rents to invest in upgrading capabilities, such as infrastructure and human capital.

These steps are critical if we are to narrow the infrastructure deficit, harness our human capital capabilities and begin toNike Air Jordan 11Lab4 Retro 4 Patent Leather