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NEW YORK - A survey conducted by Rabobank clients ranks China’s influence on agricultural commodity demand and global economic growth, as well as unseasonal and extreme weather as key issues for North American food, beverage and agribusiness in 2013.
Over 350 executives from the food, beverage and agribusiness industries took part in the polls at the recent Markets Forum organised by Rabobank, a leading bank to the global food and agribusiness industry and premier financial institution to the North American food, beverage and agriculture sectors.
Asked to name the country or region which they believe will have the greatest impact on global agricultural commodity demand over the next 10 years, 61% of respondents chose China. That view of China's continued dominance far exceeded views of India (14%), Africa (10%), Latin America (9%), and Southeast Asia (6%).
Most executives polled by Rabobank see China continuing to be the most important driver of long term global economic growth even as it has shown signs of a slowing economic growth of late. Some 41% of respondents said China would drive the global economy for between five and 10 more years, whilst 40% believe China will remain the primary driver of global economic growth for the next 50 years.
Bill Cordingley, head of Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory for Rabobank in the Americas, said, "These results are not surprising and reflect the significant impact that China has had on the food and agribusiness industry over the past 10 years, globally as well as in North America. China today has the second largest middle class in the world at 157 million, which will surpass the U.S.'s middle class in the next ten years, so China's demand for agricultural commodities is going to continue to grow. Our North American clients in the food, beverage and agriculture sectors see opportunities to play a role in the Chinese market, not only as exporters but also as investors in the country's domestic growth by bringing technology, know-how and capital to support development of a more modern, safe food system in China."
In addition to their views on China, Rabobank Forum attendees provided opinions on a range of topics that they believe will be significant issues for the global and North American food and agriculture/agribusiness industry in the coming years, including production levels, risk management, genetically modified organisms (GMO), social media, and U.S. and European macroeconomics.
Notably, 68% of attendees named weather extremes/volatility as the single biggest factor affecting North American food and agribusiness in 2013. That concern far outweighed the next two closest factors – consumer demand (13 %) and policy/regulation (10%). Geopolitical events, trade/tariffs/exchange rates, and policy/regulation all received votes in the single digits.