Feed the world

HOW will we feed 9 billion people 40 years from now when we are struggling to feed 6.8 billion today? The answer could be a mixture of the science of the future and the wisdom of the past. A disturbing milestone for planet Earth was reached last year when a report from the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) revealed that the number of undernourished people in the world had passed the 1 billion mark. That figure is expected to grow, with the world's population forecast to jump from 6.8 billion today to 9 billion in 2050. To feed all those extra mouths, FAO calculates that food production will need to increase by 70 per cent. Parviz Koohafkan, director of the Land and Water Division at FAO, says that producing this extra food is not a problem. "We can definitely do this with available land, available water and available technologies," he says. "The problem is where to produce, how to produce and how to get this food to people who are hungry." Mr Koohafkan traces his roots to Iran. He is currently based in FAO's Rome office, where he is also coordinator of Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems. He co-wrote "Endur ing Farms: Climate Change, Smallholders and Traditional Farming Communities" with Miguel Altieri, and "Water and Cereals" with Bob Stewart. Is technology the answer? Whilst the Green Revolution of the 20th century saw massive improvements in food productivity and lifted millions out of hunger, it has proved to be unsustainable in many parts of the world. Run-off from fertilisers and pesticides pollutes water sources and can cause dead zones in waterways. Excessive irrigation leads to salinisation and water logging, and biodiversity suffers because of the focus on a few high-yielding crops. As a result of over-ploughing, over-irrigation and overuse of chemical fertilisers and pesticides, the rate of growth in agricultural production is actually decreasing. From the 1960s through the 1990s agricultural production grew by about 2.3 per cent per year. Between 2030 and 2050 that growth rate is expected to fall to 0.9 per cent. For some observers, the solution to feeding the world's growing population is more extensive use of modern technology, vehicles and equipment. In the United States, the Obama administration sees biotechnology as one answer. "We believe that biotechnology has a critical role to play in increasing agricultural productivity, particularly in light of climate change," U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said in a conference call with journalists to discuss food security on World Food Day in October 2009. Meanwhile, Farming First, a global coalition of agricultural organisations, is calling for increased use of information technology to give farmers access to weather and market alerts, and for improved transportation and cold storage to prevent crop loss during and after harvest. Earth-friendly approach But a more Earth-friendly approach is also seen as a solution for future agriculture. Mr Koohafkan believes that to attain food security at the local level for a growing world population, investments are needed in small-scale farming. To highlight the importance of family and traditional farming, he is promoting FAO's Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems program. This program aims to identify and sustainably manage unique agricultural systems that have been developed over hundreds or even thousands of years, such as the rice terraces of the Philippines, the Masai pastoral system of East Africa, and the lemon gardens of southern Italy. "These systems have been developed to address the needs of communities living in fragile eco-systems," Mr Koohafkan says. "In almost every country there is some kind of unique agricultural heritage, but our present agricultural policies are not supportive of these systems." Zoom Kobe Elite High