How to Feed the World in 2050

BY 2050 the world's population will reach 9.1 billion, 34% higher than today.  Nearly all of this population increase will occur in developing countries.  Urbanisation will continue at an accelerated pace, and about 70% of the world's population will be urban (compared to 49% today).  Income levels will be many multiples of what they are now. In order to feed this larger, more urban and richer population, food production (net of food used for biofuels) must increase by 70 per cent.   Annual cereal production will need to rise to about 3 billion tonnes from 2.1 billion today and annual meat production will need to rise by over 200 million tonnes to reach 470 million tonnes.

According to the "How to Feed the World in 2050" report by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation, the required increase in food production can be achieved if the necessary investment is undertaken and policies conducive to agricultural production are put in place.  But increasing production is not sufficient to achieve food security.  It must be complemented by policies to enhance access by fighting poverty, especially in rural areas, as well as effective safety net programmes.

Total average annual net investment in developing country agriculture required to deliver the necessary production increases would amount to USD 83 billion. The global gap in what is required vis-à-vis current investment levels can be illustrated by comparing the required annual gross investment of US$209 billion (which includes the cost of renewing depreciating investments) with the result of a separate study that estimated that developing countries on average invested USD 142 billion (USD of 2009) annually in agriculture over the past decade. The required increase is thus about 50 per cent. These figures are totals for public and private investment, i.e. investments by farmers.  Achieving them will require a major reallocation in developing country budgets as well as in donor programmes.  It will also require policies that support farmers in developing countries and encourage them and other private participants in agriculture to increase their investment.

 
In developing countries, 80% of the necessary production increases would come from increases in yields and cropping intensity and only 20% from expansion of arable land. But the fact is that globally the rate of growth in yields of the major cereal crops has been steadily declining, it dropped from 3.2% per year in 1960 to 1.5% in 2000. The challenge for technology is to reverse this decline, since a continuous linear increase in yields at a global level following the pattern established over the past five decades will not be sufficient to meet food needs.  Although investment in agricultural R&D continues to be one of the most productive investments, with rates of return between 30 and 75 per cent, it has been neglected in most low income countries.  Currently, agricultural R&D in developing countries is dominated by the public sector, so that initially additional investment will have to come from government budgets.  Increasing private sector investment will require addressing issues of intellectual property rights while ensuring that a balance is struck so that access of smallholder farmers to new technologies is not reduced.
 
Hunger can persist in the midst of adequate aggregate supplies because of lacking income opportunities for the poor and the absence of effective social safety nets.  Experience of countries that have succeeded  in reducing hunger and malnutrition shows that economic growNike React Element 55