Malaysia's exports likely grew in March

The contraction this time around is expected to be smaller while export growth has continued to remain low in March, underpinned by weaker commodity prices.

A Business Times poll expects exports in March to shrink by 1.93 per cent (from -7.7 per cent in February), imports to grow by 2.06 per cent and the trade balance to average RM8.23 billion.

The International Trade and Industry Ministry will release the data today.

Gundy Cahyadi of OCBC Bank expects export growth to have returned to its short-term growth in March.

"This is not to say the trend is something that one will be envious about as the overall export growth continues to be weighed by lower commodity prices in the global economy, despite the fact that we have seen recovery in export volumes of crude palm oil."

He said the slow recovery in manufacturing demand globally is likely to translate into low export growth in Malaysia during the month under review.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch said import growth could probably come in at about zero, held up by domestic demand.

Citi pointed out that China's imports from Malaysia had increased while the decline in Singapore's imports from Malaysia eased slightly. However, Japan's imports from Malaysia fell further.

Jeff Ng of Standard Chartered Bank said the slow export growth in March will imply a contraction in exports for the first quarter, compounded by the high base effect.

He noted, however, that export growth has recovered compared on a month-on-month basis.

"We expect an improved global economic environment to boost export demand in second half."

Trade surplus, he added, is likely to have narrowed in March due to a rebound in import growth following the holiday period in February.

Cahyadi said the recovery pace in Malaysia's industrial production output growth is likely to have continued to slightly outpace that of export growth on the back of strong support from domestic-oriented industries in recent months.

"Given that majority of production is still geared towards external demand, we remain of the view that Malaysia still needs a stronger bounce in global demand before seeing a more decent recovery in the economy," he said.

 

NIKE AIR JORDAN