Nuclear: Feasible for Africa and South Africa?

While Japan and Germany prepare to shut down or idle their nuclear plants, globally, the highest numbers of nuclear reactors are currently under construction since the 1970s. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), nuclear capacity globally will be approximately 1,200 GW in 2050, providing 24% of the global electricity supply. This would make nuclear power the single largest source of electricity in 2050. South Africa is following suit as the drive towards a 9.6 GW capacity of nuclear-generated electricity by 2030 continues, writes Joanita Roos, Research Analyst for Energy and Environment at growth consulting firm, Frost & Sullivan.

Increasing the levels of nuclear generated power in the South African energy mix increases the potential to meet current and expected base-load requirements, especially with reserve margins currently being at an all-time low of 0.4%. However, further investigation is needed to determine whether nuclear will lead to an optimal mix of generationImage courtesy of utilities-me.comcapacity in South Africa.

It is important to consider that the power solutions in the African and South African energy landscape are quite different compared to the developed world. For instance, South Africa has a unique balance of determining factors including the daily electricity peaks, geographical landscape, unique energy mix, Eskom as a monopoly (for generation and transmission), a lack of privatisation, vast cultural influences, low skills availability and the regulatory framework. South Africa needs at least 3,000 MW of power immediately (2013) in order to manage maintenance and demand requirements. In addition, there is an increasing need for lower-cost, short-term power solutions and this creates a platform for other types of energy. This widens the opportunity for gas related projects and quick-to-install renewables, which enables a gradual incremental increase and reduces the risk of overbuild. From 2018, as solar PV reaches grid parity and market barriers are unlocked, the market is likely to shift in favour of off-grid solutions and solar PV is likely to exceed the target of 8.4GW allocated in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).

However, the proposed nuclear power plants will position South Africa to diversify from its current carbon-intensive power generation feedstock. Furthermore, the vast reserves of uranium in South Africa create a favourable environment for nuclear projects. The country’s uranium production is expected to increase at a compound yearly growth rate of 8.9% leading up to 2020.

Government program
The South African government’s nuclear build programme may encourage other African governments to opt for nuclear power as they search for new generating capacity that can offer energy security. Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Algeria, Ghana and Morocco are considering implementing nuclear power programmes. Nigeria aims to build 4,000 MW of nuclear generating capacity by 2030. Ghana is actively exploring the feasibility of nuclear power and has established a nuclear section within its Ministry of Energy.

The adoption of nuclear-powered generating capacity will bring both technical and political challenges for the continent, but in the light of the pressing need for electricity access, it might be an unavoidable solution. Nuclear power generation is expected to play an increasingly important role in providing electricity throughout Sub-Saharan Africa in the future.

In the African environment of energy under-pricing, fiscal and regulatory unpredictability, the lack of technical capacity and a weak supply chain, specific risk profiles will be needed. These risk profiles translate into financing requirements of nuclear projects and will differ significantly in comparison to that of developed countrienike sb