Rabobank warns on pork shortages

PORK shortages will be a key concern in many countries in the coming months, according to the Rabobank Pork Quarterly Q2 report that warns of the material impact porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) in the Americas and Asia will have on pork supply both this summer and in the years to come. However, oversupply in China is expected to continue, the report says.

Rabobank (www.rabobank.com/f&a) believes the outbreak of PEDv in the U.S., Mexico, Japan and South Korea will lead to a likely decline in global pork production in 2014 (against an earlier expected 1.3% increase); although the impact of PEDv in Asia, especially in Japan and South Korea, is sizable, but difficult to estimate as the spread of the disease is not known.

Stress on global pork supplies is currently being eased by the supply glut in China, the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork. Chinese pork prices will continue to fall in Q2 and into Q3 2014, more than a year after the price decline began, but are expected to recover by the end of Q3 2014 in line with the seasonal increase of China’s pork consumption. (Photo © Lee Snider | Dreamstime.com)